Make the result useful
Stress-test the monthly surplus
Monthly cash flow is most useful when every recurring owner cost is included: debt service, taxes, insurance, HOA, management, utilities, and a realistic maintenance allowance. A result that omits known costs is not conservative just because it is positive.
Then test a lower-rent or higher-expense month. The point is not to predict the future precisely; it is to learn how much room exists before a normal disruption turns the result negative.
Worked example
If rent is $2,400 and modeled costs total $2,050, baseline cash flow is $350/month. A $150 increase in owner-paid utilities reduces that cushion to $200; a $300 repair month eliminates it.